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TORONTO REALL ESTATE BOARD APRIL MARKET WATCH
Wednesday, 09 May 2018, 09:00:00 AM

TORONTO, ONTARIO, May 3, 2018 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced that

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,792 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in April 2018. The

average selling price was $804,584. On a year-over-year basis, sales were down by 32.1 per cent and the

average selling price was down by 12.4 per cent.

The year-over-year change in the overall average selling price has been impacted by both changes in

market conditions as well as changes in the type and price point of homes being purchased. This is

especially clear at the higher end of the market. Detached home sales for $2 million or more accounted for

5.5 per cent of total detached sales in April 2018, versus 10 per cent in April 2017. The MLS® Home Price

Index strips out the impact of changes in the mix of home sales from one year to the next. This is why the

MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was down by only 5.2 per cent year-over-year versus 12.4 per cent for

the average price.

“While average selling prices have not climbed back to last year’s record peak, April’s price level represents

a substantial gain over the past decade. Recent polling conducted for TREB by Ipsos tells us that the great

majority of buyers are purchasing a home within which to live. This means these buyers are treating home

ownership as a long-term investment. A strong and diverse labour market and continued population growth

based on immigration should continue to underpin long-term home price appreciation,” said Mr. Syrianos.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment1, the month-over-month change (i.e. March 2018 to April 2018) in

sales and the average selling price was minimal, with sales decreasing 1.6 per cent and the average selling

price decreasing by 0.2 per cent. The month-over-month sales trend has flattened out over the past two

months following a steeper drop-off in January and February.

“The comparison of this year’s sales and price figures to last year’s record peak masks the fact that market

conditions should support moderate increases in home prices as we move through the second half of the

year, particularly for condominium apartments and higher density low-rise home types. Once we are past

the current policy-based volatility, home owners should expect to see the resumption of a moderate and

sustained pace of price growth in line with a strong local economy and steady population growth,” said Jason

Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

Provincial Election Candidates Should Make Housing Issues a Top Priority

With a provincial election campaign about to begin, GTA REALTORS® hope that all of the provincial parties

will make housing issues a priority. Home ownership is a worthwhile investment that benefits our economy,

individual finances and quality of life,” said Mr. Syrianos

“In recent months and years, there has been significant intervention in housing markets by all levels of

government, through regulatory changes and taxation. We believe the next step should be tax relief,

especially from Land Transfer Taxes, both provincial and the Toronto Land Transfer Tax, and efforts to

facilitate an increase in the supply of missing middle housing that fills the gap between single family homes

and high rises. Furthermore, we believe that any attempt to increase the Toronto Land Transfer Tax should

require approval from the provincial government, given the significance of Toronto’s economy to the

Province and the connections between the Toronto real estate market and that of the broader GTA,” added

Syrianos.

 

 

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TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD MARCH MARKET WATCH
Sunday, 08 April 2018, 10:05:00 AM

TORONTO, ONTARIO, APRIL 4, 2018 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos

announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,228 residential transactions

through TREB’s MLS® System in March 2018. This result was down by 39.5 per cent compared to

a record 11,954 sales reported in March 2017 and down 17.6 per cent relative to average March

sales for the previous 10 years.

The number of new listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System totaled 14,866 – a 12.4 per cent

decrease compared to March 2017 and a three per cent decrease compared to the average for the

previous 10 years.

“TREB stated in its recent Market Outlook report that Q1 sales would be down from the record

pace set in Q1 2017,” said Mr. Syrianos. “The effects of the Fair Housing Plan, the new OSFImandated

stress test and generally higher borrowing costs have prompted some buyers to put

their purchasing decision on hold. Home sales are expected to be up relative to 2017 in the

second half of this year.”

The MLS Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was down by 1.5 percent on a year-over-year

basis for the TREB market area as a whole. The overall average selling price was down by 14.3

per cent compared to March 2017.

While the change in market conditions certainly played a role, the dip in the average selling price

was also compositional in nature. Detached home sales, which generally represent the highest

price points in a given area, declined much more than other home types. In addition, the share of

high-end detached homes selling for over $2 million in March 2018 was half of what was reported

in March 2017, further impacting the average selling price.

“Right now, when we are comparing home prices, we are comparing two starkly different periods

of time: last year, when we had less than a month of inventory versus this year with inventory

levels ranging between two and three months. It makes sense that we haven’t seen prices climb

back to last year’s peak. However, in the second half of the year, expect to see the annual rate of

price growth improve compared to Q1, as sales increase relative to the below-average level of

listings,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

TREB continues to stress that housing and housing affordability need to be at the forefront of the

policy debates leading into this year’s provincial and municipal elections.

“A well-functioning housing market is not only important to ensure that people have a place to live;

it is also important because it supports hundreds of thousands of jobs, billions of dollars in spin-off

expenditures and billions of dollars in government revenues. Issues such as the below-average

level of housing supply and often inadvisable policy ideas and negative measures such as land

transfer taxes, vacancy taxes, speculation taxes and second home taxes should also be

thoroughly debated by all candidates,” said Mr. Syrianos.

 

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TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD FEBRUARY MARKET WATCH
Saturday, 10 March 2018, 03:25:00 PM

ONTARIO, March 6, 2018 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim

Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,175 residential

transactions through TREB’s MLS® System in February 2018. This result was down 34.9

percent compared to the record 7,955 sales reported in February 2017.

The number of new listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System totaled 10,520, a 7.3 per

cent increase compared to the 9,801 new listings entered in February 2017. However, the

level of new listings remained below the average for the month of February for the

previous 10 years.

“When TREB released its Outlook for 2018, the forecast anticipated a slow start to the

year compared to the historically high sales count reported in the winter and early spring

of 2017. Prospective home buyers are still coming to terms with the psychological impact

of the Fair Housing Plan, and some have also had to reevaluate their plans due to the new

OFSI-mandated mortgage stress test guidelines and generally higher borrowing costs,”

said Mr. Syrianos.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 3.2 per cent on a yearover-

year basis for the TREB market area as a whole. This growth was driven by the

apartment and townhouse market segments, with annual benchmark price increases of

18.8 per cent and 7.5 per cent respectively. Single-family detached and attached

benchmark prices were down slightly compared to February 2017. The overall average

selling price for February sales was down 12.4% year-over-year to $767,818. However,

putting aside the price spike reported in the first quarter of 2017, it is important to note that

February’s average price remained 12 per cent higher than the average reported for

February 2016, which represents an annualized increase well above the rate of inflation

for the past two years.

“As we move further into the spring and summer months, growth in sales and selling

prices is expected to pick up relative to last year. Expect stronger price growth to continue

in the comparatively more affordable townhouse and condominium apartment segments.

This being said, listings supply will likely remain below average in many neighbourhoods

in the GTA, which, over the long-term, could further hamper affordability,” said Jason

Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

 

 

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TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD JANUARY MARKET WATCH
Thursday, 08 February 2018, 04:40:00 PM

TORONTO, ONTARIO, February 6, 2018 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced

that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,019 residential transactions through TREB’s MLS® System

in January 2018. This result was down by 22 per cent compared to a record 5,155 sales reported in January

2017.

The number of new listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System amounted to 8,585 – a 17.4 per cent increase

compared to 7,314 new listings entered in January 2017. However, it is important to note that the level of

new listings was the second lowest for the month of January in the past 10 years.

“TREB released its outlook for 2018 on January 30th. The outlook pointed to a slower start to 2018,

especially compared to the record-setting pace experienced a year ago. As we move through the year,

expect the pace of home sales to pick up, as the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan starts to

wane and home buyers find their footing relative to the new OSFI-mandated stress test for mortgage

approvals through federally regulated lenders,” said Mr. Syrianos.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 5.2 per cent year-over-year. This annual rate

of growth was driven by the condominium apartment market segment, with double-digit annual growth

versus the single-family segment, with prices essentially flat compared to last year. The overall average

selling price was down by 4.1 per cent year-over-year to $736,783. This decline was weighted toward the

detached segment of the market. In the City of Toronto, the average selling price was up for all home

types except for detached houses.

“It is not surprising that home prices in some market segments were flat to down in January compared to

last year. At this time last year, we were in the midst of a housing price spike driven by exceptionally low

inventory in the marketplace. It is likely that market conditions will support a return to positive price

growth for many home types in the second half of 2018. The condominium apartment segment will be the

driver of this price growth,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

“With the City of Toronto’s Executive Committee meeting today to make recommendations on the City’s

2018 Budget, City Councillors would be wise to note the vast difference between last January’s real estate

market and this January’s, given the City’s inadvisable reliance on the Municipal Land Transfer Tax. The

amount of revenue that the City generates from this tax goes up and down with the real estate market.

The last year should be a wake-up call for City Council. They should heed the City Manager’s ongoing

warnings of over-reliance on this tax. The Land Transfer Tax is not a good way to fund municipal services,”

said Syrianos.

The revenue generated by the Municipal Land Transfer Tax is based on the number of real estate

transactions and the value of those transactions. When the MLTT was first implemented in 2008, it made

up less than 2% of the City’s operating budget. Today, it makes up 7%, a 250% increase.

 

 

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TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD NOVEMBER MARKET WATCH
Tuesday, 12 December 2017, 09:50:00 AM

TORONTO, ONTARIO, December 5, 2017 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos

announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,374 transactions through TREB’s

MLS® System in November 2017. This result was up compared to October 2017, bucking the

regular seasonal trend. On a year-over-year basis, sales were down by 13.3 per cent compared to

November 2016.

New listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System in November 2017 amounted to 14,349 – up by

37.2 per cent compared to November 2016, when the supply of listings was very low from a

historic perspective.

“We have seen an uptick in demand for ownership housing in the GTA this fall, over and above the

regular seasonal trend. Similar to the Greater Vancouver experience, the impact of the Ontario

Fair Housing Plan and particularly the foreign buyer tax may be starting to wane. On top of this, it

is also possible that the upcoming changes to mortgage lending guidelines, which come into effect

in January, have prompted some households to speed up their home buying decision,” said Mr.

Syrianos.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price was up by 8.4 per cent on a yearover-

year basis in November 2017. The average selling price for all home types combined was

down by two per cent compared to November 2016, due in large part to a smaller share of

detached home sales versus last year. On a year-to-date basis, the average selling price was up by

13.4 per cent compared to the same period last year. High density home types continued to lead

the way in terms of price growth, with the average condominium apartment price up by doubledigits

compared to November 2016.

“Changes in market conditions have not been uniform across market segments. In line with

insights from consumer polling undertaken by Ipsos in the spring, we are still seeing seller’s

market conditions for townhouses and condominium apartments in many neighbourhoods versus

more balanced market conditions for detached and semi-detached houses. We will have more

insights to share about consumer intentions for 2018 at the end of January when TREB releases its

third annual Market Year in Review and Outlook report,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of

Market Analysis.

 

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TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD OCTOBER MARKET WATCH
Monday, 06 November 2017, 09:10:00 AM

TORONTO, ONTARIO, November 2, 2017 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim

Syrianos reported 7,118 residential sales through TREB’s MLS® System in October 2017.

This result represented an above-average increase between September and October of

almost 12 per cent, pointing to stronger fall market conditions.

On a year-over-year basis, October sales were down compared to 9,715 transactions in

October 2016. Total sales reported through the first 10 months of 2017 amounted to

80,198 – down from 99,233 for the same time period in 2016.

“Every year we generally see a jump in sales between September and October. However,

this year that increase was more pronounced than usual compared to the previous ten

years. So, while the number of transactions was still down relative to last year’s record

pace, it certainly does appear that sales momentum is picking up,” said Mr. Syrianos.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark price was up by 9.7 per cent on a

year-over-year basis in October. Annual rates of price growth were strongest for

townhouses and condominium apartments. The average selling price for October

transactions was $780,104 – up by 2.3 per cent compared to the average of $762,691 in

October 2016.

“The housing market in the GTA has been impacted by a number of policy changes at the

provincial and federal levels. Similar to the track followed in the Greater Vancouver Area,

it appears that the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan, including the tax on

foreign buyers, is starting to unwind,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market

Analysis.

“TREB will be undertaking its annual consumer polling process over the last two months of

2017. This polling will include research into the impact of recent and proposed

government policy changes on consumer intentions to buy and sell homes in the GTA,

including the impacts of the new OSFI guideline and a potential vacancy tax in the City of

Toronto. In addition, TREB continues to work with different levels of government on

solutions to the long-term housing supply issues in the region,” added Mr. Syrianos.

 

 

 

 

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TORONTO REALL ESTATE BOARD SEPTEMBER MARKET WATCH
Wednesday, 04 October 2017, 09:35:00 AM

TORONTO, ONTARIO, October 4, 2017 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim

Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,379 sales through

TREB’s MLS® System in September 2017. This result was down by 35 per cent compared

to September 2016.

The number of new listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System amounted to 16,469 in

September – up by 9.4 per cent year-over-year.

“The improvement in listings in September compared to a year earlier suggests that home

owners are anticipating an uptick in sales activity as we move through the fall. Consumer

polling undertaken for TREB in the spring suggested that buying intentions over the next year

remain strong. As we move through the fourth quarter we could see some buyers moving off

the sidelines, taking advantage of a better-supplied marketplace,” said Mr. Syrianos.

The average selling price in September 2017 was $775,546 – up 2.6 per cent compared to

September 2016. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark was up by 12.2

per cent on a year-over-year basis. A key reason for the difference in annual growth rates

between the average price and the MLS® HPI composite is the fact that detached homes –

the most expensive market segment on average – accounted for a smaller share of overall

transactions this year compared to last.

“With more balanced market conditions, the pace of year-over-year price growth was more

moderate in September compared to a year ago. However, the exception was the

condominium apartment market segment, where average and benchmark sales prices were

up by more than 20 per cent compared to last year. Tighter market conditions for

condominium apartments follows consumer polling results from the spring that pointed

toward a shift to condos in terms of buyer intentions,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of

Market Analysis.

 

 

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TORONTO REAL ESTAE BOARD JULY MARKET WATCH
Thursday, 03 August 2017, 09:45:00 AM

TORONTO, ONTARIO, August 3, 2017 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim

Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,921 residential

transactions through TREB’s MLS® System in July 2017. This result was down by 40.4

per cent on a year-over-year basis, led by the detached market segment – both in the City

of Toronto and surrounding regions.

While sales were down, the number of new listings reported were only slightly (+5.1 per

cent) above last year’s level.

“A recent release from the Ontario government confirmed TREB’s own research which

found that foreign buyers represented a small proportion of overall home buying activity in

the GTA. Clearly, the year-over-year decline we experienced in July had more to do with

psychology, with would-be home buyers on the sidelines waiting to see how market

conditions evolve,” said Mr. Syrianos.

“Summer market statistics are often not the best indicators of housing market conditions.

We generally see an uptick in sales following Labour Day, as a greater cross-section of

would-be buyers and sellers start to consider listing and/or purchasing a home. As we

move through the fall, we should start to get a better sense of the impacts of the Fair

Housing Plan and higher borrowing costs,” said TREB CEO John DiMichele.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark price was up by 18 per cent on

a year-over-year basis. However, the Composite Benchmark was down by 4.6 per cent

relative to June. Monthly MLS® HPI declines were driven more so by single-family home

types. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by five per cent

year-over-year to $746,218.

“Home buyers benefitted from more choice in the market this July compared to the same

time last year. This was reflected in home prices and home price growth. Looking

forward, if we do see some would-be home buyers move off the sidelines and back into

the market without a similar increase in new listings, we could see some of this newfound

choice erode. The recent changes in the sales and price trends have masked the fact that

housing supply remains an issue in the GTA,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of

Market Analysis.

 

 

 

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TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD MAY MARKET WATCH
Wednesday, 07 June 2017, 05:05:00 PM

TORONTO, June 5, 2017 Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 10,196 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in May

2017 – down by 20.3 per cent compared to 12,790 sales reported in May 2016. Sales of detached

homes were down by 26.3 per cent. Sales of condominium apartments were down by 6.4 per

cent.

The supply of listings was up strongly over the same period. Active listings – the number of

properties available for sale – at the end of May were up by 42.9 per cent compared to the record

low a year earlier. The number increased considerably for low-rise home types including detached

and semi-detached houses and townhouses. Active listings for condominium apartments were

down compared to May 2016.

“Home buyers definitely benefitted from a better supplied market in May, both in comparison to the

same time last year and to the first four months of 2017. However, even with the robust increase

in active listings, inventory levels remain low. At the end of May, we had less than two months of

inventory. This is why we continued to see very strong annual rates of price growth, albeit lower

than the peak growth rates earlier this year,” said Mr. Cerqua.

Selling prices continued to increase strongly in May compared to the same month in 2016. The

MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark price was up by 29 per cent year-over-year. The average

selling price for all home types combined for the TREB Market Area as a whole was up by 14.9 per

cent to $863,910. Year-over-year price increases were greater for condominium apartments

compared to low-rise home types. This likely reflects the fact that the low-rise market segments

benefitted most from the increase in listings.

“The actual, or normalized, effect of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan remains to be seen. In the

past, some housing policy changes have initially led to an overreaction on the part of homeowners

and buyers, which later balanced out. On the listings front, the increase in active listings suggests

that homeowners, after a protracted delay, are starting to react to the strong price growth we’ve

experienced over the past year by listing their home for sale to take advantage of these equity

gains,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

 

 

 

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TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD APRIL MARKET WATCH
Wednesday, 10 May 2017, 09:10:00 AM

ONTARIO, May 3, 2017 The Toronto Real Estate Board has examined property

assessment and land registry data in Ontario and has concluded that foreign buyer ownership, as

well as speculation by foreign and domestic buyers and multiple ownership in the Greater Golden

Horseshoe housing market remains low.

TREB is releasing their analysis of this data at the same time as TREB President Larry Cerqua

announces that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® entered 33.6 per cent more new listings into

TREB's MLS® System in April 2017, at 21,630, compared to the same month in 2016. New listings

were up by double-digits for all low-rise home types, including detached and semi-detached

houses and townhouses. New listings for condominium apartments were at the same level as last

year.

Total sales for the TREB market area as a whole amounted to 11,630 – down 3.2 per cent yearover-

year. One issue underlying this decline was the fact that Easter fell in April in 2017 versus

March in 2016, which resulted in fewer working days this year compared to last and, historically,

most sales are entered into TREB's MLS® System on working days.

"The fact that we experienced extremely strong growth in new listings in April means that buyers

benefitted from considerably more choice in the marketplace. It is too early to tell whether the

increase in new listings was simply due to households reacting to the strong double-digit price

growth reported over the past year or if some of the increase was also a reaction to the Ontario

Government's recently announced Fair Housing Plan," said Mr. Cerqua.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark Price was up by 31.7 per cent yearover-

year in April 2017. Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by

24.5 per cent to $920,791.

"It was encouraging to see a very strong year-over-year increase in new listings. If new listings

growth continues to outpace sales growth moving forward, we will start to see more balanced

market conditions. It will likely take a number of months to unwind the substantial pent-up demand

that has built over the past two years. Expect annual rates of price growth to remain well-above the

rate of inflation as we move through the spring and summer months," said Jason Mercer, TREB's

Director of Market Analysis.

 

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